With a recession potentially around the corner, Chris Heakes, Head of Disciplined Equity, BMO Global Asset Management, examines opportunities in low-volatility investing for 2023—including the BMO AM Canadian Smart Alpha Equity Fund.
Looking back, equity investing almost seemed easy. For years, the “Great Moderation”—a term coined by economists to describe the prolonged period of stable inflation and low macroeconomic uncertainty beginning in the 1980s—created an attractive environment for investors, with the S&P 500 growing by double-digit percentage points almost every year.
2022 was not one of these years, however.
As institutional investors well know, last year was historically difficult for markets, presenting challenges that hadn’t been seen in several decades. From rapidly increasing interest rates and persistently high inflation to the geopolitical uncertainty ignited by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, headwinds abounded. And it’s only logical to expect certain elements of that difficult market environment to spill over into 2023—and an inverted yield curve suggests a recession is likely on the horizon.
The low-volatility trend
Experienced portfolio managers take risks when prudent and adjust strategies when necessary. It’s no surprise, then, that in these turbulent times, low-volatility strategies have experienced a resurgence in interest, adding value for investors in a choppy year. Case in point: Canadian low-vol strategies. In 2022, because of pressures like inflation, interest rates, and the war in Ukraine, Energy outperformed. One might have expected Canadian low-vol, which tends to be underweight Energy relative to the broader Canadian market, to underperform as a result. But that didn’t happen. Instead, these strategies showed their value, with tactical stock selection and rigorous risk control overcoming Energy sector underweights.
BMO AM Canadian Smart Alpha Equity Fund performance in 2022
Source: BMO Asset Management Inc., Bloomberg, date range from June 17, 2011 to December 31, 2022. Additional performance details below. Index returns do not reflect transactions costs or the deduction of other fees and expenses and it is not possible to invest directly in an Index. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
As we enter 2023, there are some promising signs, including indications from central banks that they may be ready to take their foot off the gas pedal. But inflation has been relatively sticky, and balance sheets still need to be unwound, which means that quantitative tightening is still in the offing. The bottom line? Headwinds—including market volatility—are likely to persist.
With that in mind, we expect rising investor interest in low-volatility strategies to be a trend that continues in 2023—especially if this year is characterized by a recessionary environment, as recent inversions of the yield curve would indicate, and a potentially weaker Energy sector, with prices already well off their 2022 peak. It comes down to market risks: low-vol strategies tend to take an approach to portfolio construction that keeps risk factors top-of-mind, and that’s attractive in a year that could be defined by an economic downturn. This is especially true for institutional investors. Pension plans and similar organizations tend to take a long-term view, and low-vol has proven to be a strong factor to buy and hold.
We expect rising investor interest in low-volatility strategies to be a trend that continues in 2023.
Winning by not losing
If a recession is on the horizon for 2023, it remains to be seen whether it will be a hard landing—a long, deep, and painful downturn—or a soft landing. BMO Global Asset Management’s house view is that a shorter, shallower recession is the more likely outcome. But regardless, low-volatility strategies are likely to outperform in either scenario, with the magnitude of that outperformance potentially greater in a prolonged downturn. In general, low-vol’s strongest performance tends to happen in down markets. It’s a case of winning by not losing—if markets are down across the board, simply not declining as much as the rest of the pack is a victory. (As both mathematicians and smart investors know, a 50% decline means that you need a 100% increase just to get back to even.) And, as equity markets recover, starting from a higher level can be beneficial.
Case Study: The BMO AM Canadian Smart Alpha Equity Fund
To illustrate the characteristics and benefits of a risk-controlled, low-volatility, long-term approach to equity investing, let us examine one of Canada’s earliest such solutions: the BMO AM Canadian Smart Alpha Equity Fund.
Launched in 2011, the strategy’s performance has demonstrated its value over time and overcome the justifiable skepticism that investors sometimes have regarding new and different methodologies, outperforming the benchmark since inception in what was largely a growth-dominated period. The long-term risk-adjusted performance has been remarkably robust and accretive to unitholders. And in 2022, the Fund outperformed, declining just 3.7% in a year in which the S&P/TSX Capped Composite Total Return Index (benchmark) was down 5.8%.
BMO AM Canadian Smart Alpha Equity Fund
Cumulative returns since inception
Source: BMO Asset Management Inc., Bloomberg, date range from June 17, 2011 to December 31, 2022. Index returns do not reflect transactions costs or the deduction of other fees and expenses and it is not possible to invest directly in an Index. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Key performance metrics
Since Inception | BMO AM Canadian Smart Alpha Fund | Benchmark |
|---|---|---|
Annualized Total Return | 9.25% | 6.48% |
Annualized Total Risk | 9.71% | 12.10% |
Sharpe Ratio | 0.95% | 0.54 |
Annualized Active Return | 2.77% | |
Annualized Active Risk | 5.73% | |
Information Ratio | 0.48 | |
Upside Capture | 84% | |
Downside Capture | 56% |
Source: BMO Asset Management Inc., Bloomberg, date range from June 17, 2011 to December 31, 2022.
Historical return summary
BMO AM Canadian Smart Alpha Fund | Total Return | Benchmark Total Return | Active Return |
|---|---|---|---|
Current Quarter | 3.25% | 5.96% | 0.29% |
YTD | -3.69% | -5.84% | 2.15% |
Trailing 6-months | 3.42% | 4.47% | -1.05% |
Trailing 1-year | -3.69% | -5.84% | 2.15% |
Trailing 2-years | 9.96% | 8.53% | 1.44% |
Trailing 3-years | 6.81% | 7.54% | -0.73% |
Trailing 4-years | 11.25% | 11.19% | 0.06% |
Trailing 5-years | 7.78% | 6.85% | 0.93% |
Trailing 7-years | 9.82% | 9.10% | 0.72% |
Trailing 10-years | 9.79% | 7.74% | 2.06% |
Annualized Since Inception | 9.25% | 6.48% | 2.77% |
Source: BMO Asset Management Inc., Bloomberg, date range from June 17, 2011 to December 31, 2022.
The Canadian Smart Alpha Strategy’s holistic, low-volatility approach includes a multi-factor framework which looks not just at a stock’s risk level, but also its profitability, value characteristics, and momentum in markets. The strategy emphasizes stability, including an underweight to Energy and overweight defensive sectors, such as Real Estate and Consumer Staples. To guard against interest rate exposure, the team benefit from BMO’s proprietary Machine Learning Sensitivity to Interest Rate (MLSIR) model, which measures and monitors stocks and portfolios’ exposures to rising rates and recession risks. This allows the strategy to focus on a more risk-controlled approach, without taking undue interest rate risk.
The strategy’s risk assessment process takes multiple perspectives into account: Factor, Macroeconomic, and Fundamental perspectives on portfolio construction.
Source: BMO Global Asset Management.
Combining low-vol’s natural defensive qualities with these risk overlays allows the portfolio to be consistently less inflation-sensitive than the broad benchmark and positions it well for a possible recession.
Bloomberg, BMO Asset Management Inc to December 30, 2022.
Looking forward, it’s my belief that market conditions will favour asset managers who have the ability to deliver comprehensive, risk-controlled solutions, and investors who take advantage of those opportunities.
The lottery ticket effect
Recently, I was asked—what’s the next big thing in low-vol? My response was that factor investing is different from some other equity investing in that it’s not subject to what you might call the “lottery ticket effect.” Investors often focus on the wrong areas of the market, areas that promise excessive returns, but more often than not, fail to deliver. A phenomenon seen most recently with so-called “meme stocks”—companies that have gone viral in certain corners of the internet, like Reddit, outperforming significantly in the short run, but failing to deliver long-term added value, as expectations crash back to earth. The prospect of riding those companies’ coattails to riches is certainly appealing. But it’s not a reliable approach to investing for the long term.
Factor investing, conversely, is less about the next big thing and more about a tried-and-true approach. Factors are valuable because they perform over time, benefitting and underpinned by well-established investor biases that persist throughout time. Focussing on low-vol benefits from this dynamic, however a holistic approach to factors is also reflected in portfolio construction. Equities aren’t selected just because they’re lower-risk or lower standard deviation, though that is one consideration. They’re also selected for their other characteristics—quality, value, and reputation in the market. Looking forward, it’s my belief that market conditions will favour asset managers who have the ability to deliver comprehensive, risk-controlled solutions, and investors who take advantage of these enduring opportunities. The BMO AM Canadian Smart Alpha Equity Fund is a powerful example of what can be accomplished by taking such an approach to markets.
Please contact your BMO Institutional Sales Partner to learn more about the Disciplined Equity team and the BMO AM Canadian Smart Alpha Equity Fund.
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