The data being released at the moment is showing a strong bounce in the US economy: Second waves will cause some economic damage; there will be a setback in July and August, but we believe that the recovery will merely be delayed.
PMIs have bounced, and forward estimates could be revised upwards: At the global level, the PMI numbers have bounced – the June numbers are beginning to come out and they’re showing a further improvement. They’re firm, and stronger than expected.
Structural changes and weak demand to hold back interest rates and inflation: As for longer-term issues, I do not expect the outpouring of government borrowing to push up interest rates; trends at present are in the opposite direction.
Equities to outperform government bonds: This is a positive background for risk assets, but we have already had the bulk of the rally. Government bonds are needed for hedging in many portfolios, but I believe that they will underperform cash in the medium term, the best returns will come from equities.