Macro views

Life after lockdown: what’s next for markets?

Steven Bell Webinar – 30 July 2020
Augustus 2020

Steven Bell

Managing Director, Portfolio Manager & Chief Economist, Multi Asset Solutions

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Risk Disclaimer 

The value of investments and any income derived from them can go down as well as up and investors may not get back the original amount invested.

The information, opinions, estimates or forecasts contained in this document were obtained from sources reasonably believed to be reliable and are subject to change at any time.

Steven Bell rounds up the month’s economic news and answers your questions on the outlook for financial markets.

  • The US has turned a corner, but the media are painting a bleak picture: the second wave in the US has been centred in the ‘sun belt’ states, namely Florida, Texas and California, which are the 3 most populous states so they matter the most. The US media has been reporting surging cases, when data has showed cases have clearly plateaued and were set to decline.

 

  • Economic support is huge but differs between regions: whereas Europe has tended to subsidise people to remain employed, the US has allowed unemployment to skyrocket and given very generous benefits; $600 a week from the Federal government – more than average wages in most states, but that expired on 31 July.

 

  • Second-quarter earnings have not hit the predicted lows: this year, the downgrades for earnings estimates have been massive, but they are starting to flatten. Relative to those very depressed expectations, a high proportion of companies have reported ahead of forecasts.

 

  • Positive on a vaccine and risk assets: Markets have recovered most of their losses from earlier this year but there’s still so much pessimism that I remain modestly bullish for risk assets.

 

Listen to the full playback of Steven Bell’s latest webinar

 

Risk Disclaimer

The value of investments and any income derived from them can go down as well as up and investors may not get back the original amount invested.

The information, opinions, estimates or forecasts contained in this document were obtained from sources reasonably believed to be reliable and are subject to change at any time.

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Steven Bell rounds up the month’s economic news and answers your questions on the outlook for financial markets.