Opening Bell 2019 This time last year we were enjoying a positive background for markets with synchronised global growth and a surge in profit expectations. Today the mood is very different. Growth has slowed, markets ended 2018 on a sour note and fears of recession are widespread.

Closing Bell 2018 Globally, economic growth remains in good shape but it is worth noting that whilst the rate of expansion increased in 2017 (after four years of disappointment) there has been some tempering of expectations this year.

Asset Allocation Our core view is that the global economic recovery has further to run even though...

Europe Growth in Europe has been disappointing. This time last year, the economy looked like it was booming...

A US Recession? Intangibles may have extended the economic upswing but they haven’t abolished recessions.

What’s our base scenario? The world economy continues to perform well and inflation is not a threat.

Intangibles In a rapidly changing world, so-called ‘intangibles’ are playing an increasingly important role for investors.

Trade war or trade truce Tariffs generate plenty of headlines but we expect their impact to be modest and good sense to prevail.

An alternative view There are risks that could tip the US economy into a deeper downturn than we are expecting.

The pendulum is swinging back to the emerging markets In the second quarter, Avengers: Infinity War became the fastest film to gross a billion dollars.

Where do we go from here? Globally, economic growth remains in good shape but it is worth noting that whilst the rate of expansion increased in 2017 (after four years of disappointment) there has been some tempering of expectations this year.