Examining how the oracles communicate
History may help predict the future
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Interestingly, while most associate a Fed accommodation period with strong performance of risk assets, this is not uniformly accurate. Of the two previous cycles (those for which the excess return calculation is available), in one, Fed accommodation was consistent with this assumed convention. However, in the 2007 cycle, this was notably not the case as fundamental economic deterioration and accelerating market fear far outpaced the benefit from Fed action.