Themes include:

• Clearer Fed communication? From their fourth rate hike in December 2018, the Fed completely changed direction and cut rates a total of three times through 2019, accompanied with decidedly garbled market communication. The optimist in us would like to believe that Fed messaging will be more consistent through 2020.
• Decreased corporate leverage. The post-rate hike deleveraging in the US corporate sector in 2018, initially continued into 2019, but the lure of cheap money proved too strong and there was a rebound in debt issuance in 2019 overall. Recent projections are for a decrease in issuance in 2020, which we would welcome, but will also monitor closely.
• Election year for the US: deficits to continue. Disappointingly, the only party that cares about government spending is the one out of power – our main political prediction for 2020 is that whichever party wins, government deficits will continue.
• Sufficient support for markets in 2020. We believe that there is sufficient support, in fundamental, technical and policy terms, for markets to perform well in 2020.